Corona virus concerns.l

I would postpone mail to/from countries that have had significant impact (e.g., China, Iran, Italy...), not because of concerns of virus spread, but simply because of likely mail processing/delivery delays or even somebody tossing out batches because of unfounded concerns. Can't tell you how many times I've had to say, it's OK, you don't have to throw that package away, your mask won't really protect you because you don't have it over your nose, you can't keep re-using the same mask... In other words, they throw things away that they don't have to, but don't throw away the things they are supposed to!

There is almost always a non-zero possibility of anything happening. Even if there is a non-trivial probability, I still would not be concerned. The issue is whether there is a non-trivial risk, which factors in the actual likelihood of it happening under the range of typical conditions/situations. In science, in discovery/research phase, we always consider ideal conditions to see if it is "possible", and then try to do the experiment under the ideal/controlled environment. When considering actual risk, we consider "typical conditions", and so statistics comes into play. If the insurance industry only considered possibility/probability, nobody could ever afford insurance. But they consider actual risk based on actual statistics/demographics, and that is what makes insurance affordable (supposedly).

In a nutshell, the risk of an infected individual sneezing/coughing on your specific envelope (or by chance having an active virus on their hands when handling your envelope) out of thousands they are likely handling each day, then having the virus survive non-ideal conditions for the week-long overseas delivery, then you touching the right spot, then putting your finger to pick your nose or suck on your finger... well, you get the picture.

Medical personnel like my two sisters who are doctors, are at much higher risk simply because their possible overall exposure time is higher than most. Neither are taking any additional pre-cautions other than what they would for preventing transmission of the flu from their patients -- wash hands frequently or wear gloves when necessary, examine patients only in a well-ventilated room, do not re-use disposable supplies, 99% alcohol wipe of non-disposable equipment used between patients (sorry, the 60%+ hand sanitizers won't kill viruses in the short time you rub your hands, but you can't really use 91% alcohol either, so just wash your hands under running water for at least 20s)...

Some nurses and assistants, however, are scared to death. Some because they haven't been given adequate information or adequate supplies, but also some because they have not been diligent in adhering to their training on sterilization & patient protocol. The nurses I know are highly trained and have always been very careful in following protocol, regardless of how busy they get. They are not concerned any more than having to interact with a patient with the normal flu or cold.

I was really surprised to see Fauci warn that the number of COVID-19 cases in the US could go up into many millions, and supporting estimates of a half million deaths. Yes, there is a non-zero possibility of that happening, but realistically?!? I can't imagine any scenario where that is "likely" to happen unless there is a Presidential order for everyone to cough on another person at least once a day for the next month. The statistics don't support this statement being realistic. China, with 4x the population of the US, a far weaker health care system, much poorer ventilation housing/buildings, much higher urban densities... has <100K cases with a few thousand deaths and the mathematical model clearly shows COVID-19 has not only maxed out there, but is declining. Keep in mind, there is currently NO pill you can take get rid of COVID-19. The 60K cases that have had full recoveries are because their immune system got rid of the virus, not because of any antibiotic.

So, wash your hands, stay away from sneezing/coughing people, avoid being in confined spaces or poorly ventilated rooms with another person for prolonged periods (e.g., small rooms, motel/hotel rooms, cruises...), and keep fit. You'll be OK. If you are age 60+ or have compromised immune system, please please please be extra diligent.

To put things in perspective, and I'm only using the US statistics: 20-50 million people get the normal flu each year, ~20,000~60,000 die of the normal flu each year (that's only the US). Currently, only using statistics from China, 80,000+ cases, 3000+ deaths.

Of course, 1 death or even 1 illness is 1 too many. But, just trying to put things into perspective.

I guess I'm a little insensitive, having been a math science major, and having done mathematical modeling on AIDS in the mid-1980s. Virtually all diseases follow the basic model, and the model is quite accurate. That is why I am scratching my head because of all the fear-mongering by those who should know better. The statements being made today, are based on policy. Their purpose is primarily to alleviate concerns or heighten awareness. China, with it's very restrictive control of mobility, has demonstrated that containment is not the solution since it still got out. Therefore a policy of awareness is definitely better, so people take the proper precautions (which are the same as avoiding the normal flu). But scaring people into this through fear-tactics, may not be good in the long run. I'm reminded of Hurricane Katrina (everyone fled here and it didn't hit here, but the poorly enacted evacuation created a tremendous number of problems, including deaths). When Hurricane Harvey hit recently, few people evacuated when they should have -- over-scare people and they think they've been duped, they won't bite when you try to scare them again.

The economy in my city has taken a huge economic hit because of unfounded fears. Of course, I've done more restaurant dining and shopping in the past month than I have in the past 2 years because Chinatown is half-empty -- it's nice not having to deal with crowds and finding a parking space immediately!

JMO

I admit, I didn't start getting the flu shot until I was 50. I've always been one of those who doesn't get sick much -- although I make up for it by having incurable chronic diseases and migraines .

Once I got to 50, I decided it wasn't worth betting against the statistics. (not to mention one of my doctor sisters decided to stab me with a hollow metal pointy thingie when I got to 50 )

I posted this on Facebook and decided to post it here, since most of you wont see it...

Went to Walmart today, in Harahan, to pick up a few things we needed and I was shocked by the empty shelves in the store.

Here are a few things, I noticed, that was completely out...

1. Yeah, like everyone has mentioned, no toilet paper. Guess people are now wiping their ass. Why start now if you haven't been doing it all these years. Glad I wont be smelling ass for the near future.

2. No paper towels, napkins, trash bags or cleaning supply. People don't have anything to do now, since everything is shutting down, so they must be cleaning house. Now when I walk the dog in the neighborhood, I will think that I am in a pine forest with all the Pine-Sol I will be smelling.

3. In the health/beauty department, vitamins and deodorant are wiped out. NOW you want to think about your health and start smelling good. Yeah okay.

4. No detergent and bleach. Maybe I can understand being out of bleach, but detergent. So you haven't been washing clothes for all these years and all of a sudden, everyone says lets start now??? Clean clothes, using deodorant and wiping your ass, everyone should be a pleasant to be around.

5. Sugar and eggs. Who in the world hoards these??? How long do you plan to store those eggs? They must know something I don't.

6. Pet supplies, especially cat litter and dog and cat food. All of a sudden people are remembering to take care of their animals? I don't get this one at all.

7. Soup, can vegetables, rice, tuna, canned meats, and other essentials. Maybe people are getting a jump start for the upcoming hurricane season. I sure hope so!!!

8. Bread and deli meat. The bread aisle was wiped out. While I was there, I saw a couple of people rolling in stacks of bread. I saw one lady grab 8 loaves. Yeah, 8 freaking loaves. Maybe she was making sandwiches for the neighborhood. But, but, but..... there is not any deli meat to put on that bread.

A few things I noticed that was limited.... Orange juice, cereal and chips. I picked up the last two boxes of Peanut Butter and Chocolate Cheerios. Sorry if you were looking for some.

Now a couple of things that I thought that would be wiped out, but were fully supplied. COFFEE and ALCOHOL. Its good to know that they are stocking these two items daily and they wont run out. Then again, most New Orleanians probably have a 6 months supply already. I know I do....

I was at Winco today. They had TP, and I saw a few sections that were sparsely stocked with product. But there was only one section I saw where the shelves were completely devoid of product - Ramen noodles. The snack chip shelves were full. Crazy.

I've got ulcerative colitis. I always have plenty of TP.

Which is why I have time to play study stamps today! Isn't it great when life doesn't get in the way!

Rural Southeastern Kentucky, where I live, hasn’t been affected as badly as other parts of the nation...yet. Yesterday, the school system where my youngest daughter began teaching last year declared that, as of Monday, school would be closed until April 10. Also, the college where she is taking a night class towards her Masters has announced that spring break, which was supposed to have ended on Friday, will continue on until March 22. As she still lives at home and sometimes helps me with my stamps, I might be able to get caught up a little!